Weekend Update: Gambling, Investing and Poker

More and more I am beginning to think that investing and trading, is more and more becoming high stakes gambling. I am a big fan of gambling myself, but I always wanted to believe that swing trading and investing was not exactly like gambling at a casino.

How else do you explain 30-40% falls in energy stocks and the 30-40% gains in financials in a period 48 hours? This week was perhaps the most grotesque and egregious example of “sector rotation” that I have ever seen. So energy was so great last week and financials so horrible…then everything just flips on a dime? Sure a correction was to be expected but not everyone in the market should be trading together, there should be some kind of balancing act which keeps the market somewhat sane I am beginning to think the stock market has organized criminals involved, but it could be just Goldman Sachs reigning havoc on us all.

I don’t think any stock or sector is really investable right now. Financials have gone up too much too quick…backing of Fannie and Freddie by the feds and less than dire news from Wells Fargo and Citi doesn’t take us out of the woods yet. Tech? It has been one of the worst sectors this year and bad news from Apple and Sandisk…with continued bad news from VMWare and EMC can send us to the abyss.

I’ve been through wild swings before, but this past week was the most disgusting manipulation by the market I have ever seen. Unless you engage in rapid fire daytrading, nobody can make any money…the bulls and bears both get taken to the cleaners together. If you shorted financials a month ago, you are even. If you bought energy 3 months ago, you are even. All gains made by casual investors have been wiped clean.

On the other hand if you sold financial stocks last week, I feel your pain…same goes with those who didn’t sell energy 2 weeks ago. Fannie and Freddie is the best example of how our markets have been hijacked…these stocks fluctuate 20-100% daily…which is just not supposed to happen but nowadays we accept the fact that it does.

The World Series of Poker returns to ESPN starting this week on Tuesdays. In a quirky arrangement, the WSOP Main Event was paused last week and all the final table players return in November to complete it. ESPN didn’t like the fact that people knew the winners 3 months before it aired.

The top prize is 9.2 million dollars…and all final table players were given an advance of $900,000 which was 9th place money. There are no well known pros who survived, which assures for the 8th year or so a no namer will follow the footsteps of Chris Moneymaker, Joe Hachem, Jaime Gold and Jerry Yang.

The best poker program on TV, the World Poker Tour is returning for its 7th season. They will leave their home on the Game Show Network (GSN) and move to Fox Sports Net. It is unclear if the hosts (Mike Sexton and Vince Van Patten) will return or if it will continue to same format that it always had.

Hostess Layla Kayleigh will not be returning which makes her the third straight hostess to be one and done since the 3 year reign of Shana Hiatt. Courtney Freel and Sabina Gadecki were the last two one and done. The favorite of many WPT fans including myself is Kimberly Lansing to take over the post.

Season 6 Hostess Layla Kayleigh and former G4 and Maxim personality.

Seasons 1~3 Hostess Shana Hiatt, former hostess of Poker After Dark and Playboy Cover Model

Season 4 Hostess Courtney Friel, now an entertainment reporter and contributor for Fox News

Season 5 hostess Sabina Gadecki, currently the girlfriend of New York Knicks player David Lee

Season 6 Supporting Hostess Kimberly Lansing…the girl I would like to see takeover the duties for Season 7 and one of the top 5 ladies on tv I have a crush on.

I am NOT looking forward to the stock market tomorrow…no matter what happens I am likely to lose. I am in the process of winding down my positions, taking what little profits I have left and cutting losses…but as long as financials keep rallying while tech and energy tank…I am trapped. A lot of depend on earnings reports from Bank of America (before the bell) and Apple Inc (after the bell). Good luck to all investors out there!

A New Direction

I haven’t updated my blog lately due to laziness and being too busy doing trades.  I will start soon but let me go over a few things on my mind right now.

As I predicted the mortgage/housing stocks are continuing to melt down.  Thornburg Mortgage was the latest casualty with their stock dropping from 27 to 7 in just a month.  Nobody knows how bad this will be, we may start seeing homebuilders go bankrupt (only one Tarragon has gone bk so far).  Look to my previous postings to find out the stocks I think are the weakest.  Novastar, Impac Mortgage and Fremont General are virtually bankrupt now…among the homebuilders Beazer Homes, Standard Pacific and WCI Communities are on BK watch.  Look at Countrywide and Centex as the primary barometers of those industries…if they go, then it’s over.  Look for collateral damage among REITS such as KKR Financial, Newcastle Investments….mortgage insurers such as PMI and MGIC and title companies such as Landamerica and First American.

The broad stock markets have not done well at all lately.  Nothing has been spared…with oil, emerging markets and financials all getting hammered.  The volatility is high and there is a lot of uncertainty.  This probably not the best time to put new monies in, but this is a dream for active traders to play with options.

The departure of Karl Rove marks the beginning of a new direction in Bush’s lame duck presidency.  Karl Rove was the second most important adviser (after Dick Cheney) and was widely considered Bush’s brain.  Karl Rove had full control of him since his days in Texas and George Bush’s presidency and reelection is in a way a creation of Karl Rove.  His failure to enact the Senate Amnesty bill and the onslaught of criticism form the US Attorney firings probably damaged his ego and made him resign.  But it was unexpected because Karl Rove loved being despised by others…he fed off that energy.  Will we see a more kinder, gentler Bush?  I doubt it, but things can’t get any worse than it is now.

This was a sad week for Los Angeles, two living legends both passed away.  Hal Fishman was the longest serving news anchor in the history of broadcasting, manning the desk continuously on KTLA at 10pm since 1975 (for 33 years) and involved in LA News since 1960.  This is probably a feat that will be unrivaled.  In LA media we have 3 broadcasting legends…they are Chick Hearn, Vin Scully and Hal Fishman.  Sadly only 1 of them is still with us today.  But I consider myself incredibly lucky growing up to cherish and revere the work of Hearn, Scully and Fishman.  Fishman was one of the very last (and the very best) anchors to TELL the news and not just READ it like everyone else does.   His reputation for honesty is unmatched, and nobody in LA questions what he tells us because we know he will stand for nothing besides facts, facts and more facts.  KTLA‘s website has a wonderful tribute set up for this LA Legend, calling him a legend however is an understatement.  In the era of eye-candy news models reading us the news, there will be never another Hal Fishman telling us the news.

I don’t know much about Merv Griffin, but he’s the reason why we have the two most successful games shows of all-time in Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune.  He is the creator of both shows and also is the mastermind of the Wheel of Fortune slot machines in casinos.  In addition to creating those game shows, he was a successful talk show host, actor and real estate developer.  People only dream of having even 1/100 of the success this man has had in a lifetime.  He’s legend will live forever through the game shows he left behind and the most popular slot machines in the world.

I have been on the Alli (Orlistat) diet pill continuously for about a month now.  With continued exercise and reduced intake, I have managed to lose about 7 pounds.  Some of it is attributable to Alli, but not all.  But in any case based on the appearance and frequency of my stools, it is working.  But the fear of an “alli oops” (aka anal leakage) is always a concern.  I will continue taking it and will update on my progress.

And as of today, I no longer support Rudy for president as he has endorsed amnesty for all illegal immigrants.

I will end it at that today, and I will have more insight on a variety of more issues later on.

Infidelity, Politics and Vices

We’ve seen a couple big politicians in the past couple of weeks getting caught for infidelity: Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (now Villar, because he has divorced Raigosa) and Louisiana Senator David Vitter. Just a couple of months ago we’ve seen the flap over San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom. The biggest baggage over presidential candidate Rudy Giulliani has been his 3 marriages and being separated from his children. I believe when someone decides to run for office, he/she gives up the right to a private life. At the same time I believe when someone is doing a good job, I could careless what they do in the bedroom.

I think married men, especially those who are always on the road spending a lot of time away from their wives and girlfriends (politicians, actors, athletes) are under immense pressure. By nature unless a man unless he is castrated is driven by nature to procreate. All humans are attracted to the opposite sex (or for a minority, the same sex) and to keep the exclusivity of that attraction to a single person is asking for too much. I do not view it as a negative for a politician who commits adultery, but when those same politicians tout family values and pull the whole religion card…he/she becomes a hippocrite.

David Vitter, freshman senator from Louisiana has been caught in the DC Madame scandal. He’s definitely not the first who have used “escorts” in DC and he definitely won’t be the last. But he makes an interesting case because he is one of the most conservative senators in Washington. He has touted family values, Jesus and all the southern conservative stuff…saying other people should remain moral, but obviously doesn’t practice what he preaches. Again I reiterate, I could careless that he’s cheating on his wife or using hookers but at least have enough respect for your constituents to follow the “family values” that you preach and also to be smart to not get caught. There is no reason why anyone should be caught by telephone records. We have the internet, we have prepaid cell phones and we still have the good ol payphones. If you are a public figure and doing shenanigans, take some steps to be anonymous. I thank the Senator for his work in being one of the primary leaders in defeating amnesty…but this really is a big chink in his armor.

I’ve always believed that prostitution should be legal. It is the same reason why I believe marijuana, gambling and abortion should also be “safe and legal”. These are activities that do not harm the general public and it is simply an infringement of our freedoms for the government to make it illegal or difficult.

As for prostitution let us “decriminalize” it. Let us eliminate “sex slavery”, bring them out of the shadows and turn it into a profession that we can license and tax. Require escort agencies and brothels to be licensed, require sex workers to pass periodic health exams and tax their earnings. We already have “de facto” legalization of prostitution. Old rich people being with hot 20 year old girls is nothing more than prostitution. Why are we sending the “johns” to seek legal prostitution to places like Thailand or Netherlands? Why are we forcing the johns to the high risk of disease and violence in having to use street prostitutes? Why are undercover cops entrapping the johns, when they should be fighting gang violence instead? Why are we putting on such big stigma for the johns who just want a good time, deliberately trying to ruin their careers or making them convicted criminals? Why is the government in the business of saying that exotic dancers have to stay a distance from their clientèle, that you can’t serve alcohol in full nude clubs at the same time it is okay in topless joints? Why are we forcing sex workers into a life of indentured servitude, forcing them to work in underground massage parlors or for violent pimps? Is it so bad that we decriminalize the activity, tax it and keep it safe? People aren’t going to stop paying for sex just because it is illegal. It is so arbitrary and hippocritical. Let the people be! The government is nannying the people to the point that they want to tell us what we can and can’t eat. Are they going to require uniform attire for walking in our sidewalks next?

Abortion is an issue that IS and should REMAIN settled. It should not be encouraged but should not be discouraged or illegal. Old and overweight politicians and judges should not be deciding on what women can do with their bodies. They also shouldn’t force down our throats the belief that “life begins at conception”. If you believe in that great…but don’t force everyone to believe in that. Nobody can scientifically prove this, and a collection of stories written 2000 years ago by humans should not be the law of the land. Same goes with evolution, we have gotten to the point where people who do not believe in evolution are just kidding themselves but I would not want to see anyone forced to believe in evolution. But I expect the same “intelligent design” people not to force their beliefs on me.

I am pretty furious that Bush snuck in the provision to make online gambling illegal as part of a Homeland Security bill. Obviously that measure could not pass on its own merits that the “Moral Republicans” had to resort to that. In any case I strongly feel that online gambling should be made “safe and legal” and taxed. Obviously there is a huge market for this, it doesn’t harm the general public and could be a source substantial revenues for the government. It is legal in nearly every developed country in the world but not in the U.S. I think it is time we get with the program.

We have come a long way from times of slavery and women not being allowed to vote. But we have a long way to go in becoming a progressive nation. My desire is to see that most victimless crimes become decriminalized and settled. Let us once and for all make abortion a legal choice for all Americans without putting it under continued threat. We are not Ireland. Let us bring the johns and sex workers out of the shadows and make prostitution safe, legal and taxed profession. Let us make online gambling a regulated, legal and taxed industry in the U.S., the act of making it illegal is taking our country out of a multi-billion dollar market that could generate huge revenues for the government and create millions of jobs.